U.S. fertility rate reaches record low, while the total number of births experiences an increase.

The U.S. fertility rate has reached an unprecedented low, continuing a downward trend that has persisted for two decades, according to new data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Thursday. The report indicates that the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44 decreased by 1%, dropping from 54.5 in 2023 to 53.8 in 2024. This decline has resulted in an overall fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman for the year 2024.

Demographers maintain that a fertility rate of 2.1 is essential for maintaining population levels in each generation, known as the replacement level. The current U.S. figure is approaching levels seen in Western Europe, as evidenced by World Bank data.

Interestingly, the total number of births in the U.S. did see a 1% uptick, with approximately 3.6 million babies born between 2023 and 2024. However, the birth rates experienced by teenagers, as well as younger women in their 20s and early 30s, were notably lower. Birth rates remained stable among women aged 35 to 39, while an opposite trend emerged for women aged 40 to 44, who experienced a 2% increase in births during this time.

Experts suggest that the decline in fertility rates is part of an ongoing pattern of delayed childbearing. Leslie Root, a researcher at the University of Colorado, explained this phenomenon, noting that despite lower fertility rates, the U.S. population is still growing due to a natural increase—where births outnumber deaths.

While economic challenges typically exert a temporary dampening effect on fertility rates, a recovery often follows with economic improvement. However, this cycle appeared to be interrupted post the 2007-09 Great Recession, when fertility rates fell significantly and did not rebound. The COVID-19 pandemic further pressured these rates, compounding existing concerns.

Current socio-economic instability is not conducive to increased childbearing, according to Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina. Recent federal initiatives intended to incentivize childbirth are seen as largely symbolic and fail to address pressing concerns such as parental leave and childcare availability. Guzzo emphasized that prevailing uncertainties make it an impractical moment for prospective parents to consider expanding their families.

As these trends evolve, they may have far-reaching implications for U.S. demographics and policy making in the years to come.

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