Thanksgiving in Philadelphia will be snow-free, but colder winter-like temperatures are expected.

As the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, predictions regarding snowfall in the Philadelphia region and the broader Northeastern United States are becoming clearer. Forecasters suggest that residents should not expect a white Thanksgiving or a snowy Black Friday. Instead, the forecast indicates a warm spell leading into the holiday weekend, although colder conditions may follow shortly thereafter.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center has indicated a likelihood of below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the Philadelphia area from next Friday through December 12. Meteorologists emphasize caution against placing too much faith in snow forecasts circulating on social media, which often exaggerate the chances of snowfall. Judah Cohen, a recognized polar scientist and seasonal forecast specialist, has noted a disconnect between the projections of snowfall and the corresponding hype seen online.

The week ahead is expected to be relatively uneventful, though rain showers are predicted for Tuesday night, potentially lingering into Wednesday, with daytime highs reaching into the 60s. However, a significant shift in atmospheric patterns may introduce cooler air into the Northeast as the Thanksgiving week progresses.

Attention is focused on the possibility of a major stratospheric warming event occurring in the Arctic. This phenomenon is particularly noteworthy as it could disrupt typical weather patterns, causing an influx of cold air into the continental United States. Computer models are currently divided on the likelihood and impact of this event. If it does occur, it would mark only the second incidence of such early stratospheric warming since the early 1950s, as noted by NOAA meteorologist Laura A. Ciasto.

Cohen highlights that when warmer air in the middle atmosphere pushes upwards, it can compromise the polar vortex—a system of west-to-east winds that generally contain cold air in the Arctic. A weakened polar vortex might allow frigid air to penetrate farther south, potentially affecting weather conditions across the Northern Hemisphere for an extended period.

Different forecasting models offer varied perspectives on the likelihood of this significant atmospheric event. The European model has been consistently pointing to the potential for a major occurrence, while its U.S. counterpart remains less certain in its predictions.

Should this stratospheric warming event materialize, meteorologists anticipate potential disruptions in the jet stream, which could bring colder temperatures, and possibly snow, to the continental U.S. in the weeks following the event. Several contributing factors, including atmospheric patterns over the North Pacific, also suggest a likelihood of cooler conditions for the Northeast.

As Thanksgiving approaches, while residents may wish for a snowy landscape, the immediate forecast does not promise snowfall on the ground. However, fluctuations in the weather could lead to the appearance of snow in future forecasts, even if it does not settle.