Ice Cream Prices Increase Significantly This Summer Due to Rising Costs and Supply Chain Issues

As consumers gear up for the summer season, the rising costs of coconut oil—a pivotal ingredient in many popular treats, including ice cream—have become a significant concern, as reported by ZezapTV. In 2025, the market has witnessed a substantial increase in the wholesale price of Philippine coconut oil, reaching an industry benchmark of ,800 per tonne in Rotterdam, nearly double the price recorded the previous year.

Several factors have contributed to this price surge. Adverse weather conditions in Indonesia and the Philippines, which together supply approximately 75% of global coconut oil, have hampered production. The effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon have led to drier conditions across Southeast Asia, particularly impacting coconut farms from June 2024 to October 2024. This resulted in extreme heat and drought, ultimately leading to reduced yields. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts that coconut oil production will decline to an estimated 3.6 million tonnes for the 2024-2025 season—a decrease of 5 to 10 percent compared to the previous cycle.

In addition to climate factors, the Philippines has also mandated an increase in the use of coco methyl ester, a biodiesel derived from coconut oil, to enhance its renewable energy strategy. The blending target has been raised progressively, culminating in a planned escalation from 3% to 4% by the end of 2025 and 5% by 2026. This initiative requires significant amounts of coconuts, thus increasing overall demand.

Moreover, the chocolate industry has seen fluctuations that impact coconut oil consumption. As chocolate manufacturers increasingly seek affordable alternatives to cocoa butter due to high cocoa prices, coconut oil has emerged as a suitable substitute. The demand for vegan and dairy-free chocolate has further cemented coconut oil’s role in this sector.

The popularity of coconut products has also surged in wellness circles, with influential figures advocating their nutritional advantages. Despite ongoing debates regarding the health merits of coconut oil, it remains a sought-after ingredient in beauty and personal care products as well, further pushing up its demand.

Looking forward, the challenge remains for coconut production to meet the increasing demand while navigating environmental regulations and the susceptibility to climate variability. Experts predict that consumers should be prepared for elevated ice cream prices throughout the summer and into the next year. Those looking for alternatives may need to explore fruit-based sorbets to satisfy their cravings.

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