Kabul Could Be First Major City to Run Out of Water by 2030

In a recent report by nonprofit Mercy Corps, significant concerns about Kabul’s water supply have emerged, suggesting that the Afghan capital might face an unprecedented water crisis within the next five years. As the city of over six million grapples with dwindling groundwater levels, experts have raised alarms regarding the implications of such a crisis on the population, particularly one that has seen substantial growth over the past two decades.

The report indicates that Kabul’s aquifer levels have dramatically decreased by 25 to 30 meters, with water extraction now surpassing natural replenishment by approximately 44 million cubic meters annually. This unsustainable trend could lead to the aquifers running dry by 2030, potentially displacing around three million residents, according to projections from UNICEF. Alarmingly, the report also highlights that nearly half of Kabul’s underground bore wells—critical for residents’ drinking water—are already dry, with up to 80 percent of available groundwater deemed unsafe, contaminated by high levels of sewage, arsenic, and salinity.

Various factors contribute to this dire situation: rapid urbanization, compounded climate change impacts, and the complexities arising from years of conflict. The city’s population expanded from roughly one million in 2001 to its current figures, straining existing water resources. A combination of governance challenges and limited capacities, particularly in the wake of prolonged military intervention, has exacerbated the crisis.

Experts such as water resource management professional Assem Mayar emphasize that the gap between groundwater recharge and extraction is widening, marking a worrying trend that requires urgent intervention. Meanwhile, Najibullah Sadid, a senior researcher and specialist in the Afghanistan Water and Environment Professionals Network, underscored the socioeconomic disparities that the water crisis is fueling, as wealthier residents can afford to dig deeper wells, while poorer communities struggle to access this vital resource.

The situation is compounded by climate change, where decreasing precipitation and rising temperatures further diminish groundwater recharge opportunities. This cyclical crisis underscores the necessity for urgent infrastructural improvements and sustainable resource management. Sadid points out that although projects aimed at developing essential water infrastructures, such as the construction of check dams and recharging aquifers, were pledged, they remain stalled due to ongoing sanctions and political uncertainties.

As the humanitarian situation becomes increasingly pressing, many observers call for a revitalization of Kabul’s water systems. Recommendations include modernizing outdated infrastructure, establishing a collaborative effort between local authorities and international organizations, and implementing artificial groundwater recharge methods. The entangled issues of over-extraction, climate change, and geopolitical factors necessitate a multifaceted approach to ensure that Kabul not only preserves its water sources but also fosters resilience for its future.

In light of these developments, it is crucial that the global community recognizes the plight of Kabul and supports initiatives aimed at restoring and enhancing its water supply systems.

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