China’s population declines as birth rate reaches lowest level since 1949.

BANGKOK — In a bid to combat declining birth rates, China’s government is initiating a series of policies aimed at encouraging families to have more children. This effort follows decades of population control, which included the long-standing one-child policy. A decade after the termination of that policy, authorities are employing diverse tactics to reverse a worrying trend in birth rates, which have reached historic lows. These strategies include providing cash subsidies, taxing contraceptives, and eliminating taxes on child-care services and matchmaking agencies.

Despite these interventions, data released recently reveals that China’s population continues to decrease, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline. China’s population, which stands at approximately 1.404 billion as of 2025, has decreased by about 3 million from the previous year. The birth rate has plummeted to 5.63 births per 1,000 individuals, representing the lowest level recorded since 1949, when the People’s Republic of China was established.

In 2025, roughly 7.92 million babies were born, a staggering drop of 1.62 million, or 17%, compared to 2024. This data underscores a persisting trend of declining births, highlighting challenges that cannot be attributed solely to specific years in the Chinese zodiac, such as the recent Year of the Snake, which is often considered an unfavorable time for childbirth in Chinese culture.

As the nation grapples with these demographic shifts, it faces significant economic implications. Currently, roughly 23% of China’s population, or 323 million individuals, are over the age of 60. This aging demographic amplifies pressures on the working-age population, which continues to dwindle, creating concerns about the sustainability of economic growth and the burden on social support systems.

To address these challenges, experts emphasize the necessity for comprehensive reforms in China’s labor and pension systems, and a broader tax base to mitigate the financial strain posed by an aging society. The government has attempted to incentivize family growth by offering subsidies amounting to 3,600 yuan (approximately 0) per child. Additionally, recent tax changes have excluded condoms from a value-added tax exemption, imposing a 13% tax on these products as part of efforts to promote childbirth.

Despite these initiatives, demographic and societal pressures endure. Young families cite the high costs of raising children and the increasing economic burdens as significant deterrents to having larger families. Structural issues, including housing affordability, employment opportunities, and educational expectations, further exacerbate the challenges of reversing declining birth rates.

As China’s government considers its approach, the situation remains complex. The effectiveness of current policies will depend on whether they can genuinely address the underlying difficulties faced by families in an evolving economic landscape. The consequences of these demographic trends will likely shape China’s future for years to come.

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