Decision on the next phase for southern Yemen is being shaped on the ground.
In recent months, the landscape of southern Yemen has shifted dramatically, reflecting the complex interplay of military control and political dynamics that characterize the region. The intricate web of security structures, which includes both state-affiliated units and groups emerging from the conflict, underscores the pressing need for a coherent strategy to manage and unify these forces. Amid this turbulence, the role of regional partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE is critical, influencing the stability and future governance of Yemen while illustrating the delicate balance of power in the broader Middle East.
Recent developments in southern Yemen reveal the intricate and evolving landscape of power, where military structure increasingly dictates political outcomes. The recent months have underscored that the relationship dynamics between the Yemeni government and various military units are pivotal to achieving stability. In recent times, southern governorates under government control have seen military and security matters taking center stage in determining power shifts on the ground, emphasizing the urgent need for a robust framework to address security concerns.
As the Saudi–Emirati rift plays out, the repercussions reach deep into Yemen’s southern regions, where the balance of power is heavily influenced by both nations’ support in military, political, and economic terms. A multifaceted security architecture has evolved over the years, comprising official state units and others that emerged during the prolonged conflict. While some groups are aligned with state institutions, others, notably the Southern Transitional Council (STC) forces, have received backing from Emirati forces. This setup, featuring tens of thousands of fighters, complicates efforts for a unified security command.
Despite recent attempts to reshape the military landscape following the STC’s announcement of its dissolution in Hadhramaut and al-Mahra on January 3, 2026, the distribution of security control remains inconsistent across governorates, and many of STC’s formations have yet to fully disband. For instance, in Aden, the temporary capital, security agencies operate under a chaotic structure as units formerly associated with the STC have experienced personnel and weapons losses. This has led to the emergence of new names and redistributions, highlighting that influence networks persist and that power dynamics are in flux rather than being resolved.
The pressing challenge now is the integration of various military and security formations into Yemen’s Ministries of Defence and Interior. The government’s mission to dissolve parallel security authorities faces several obstacles, including distinct funding sources for certain military groups and varying political allegiances. Many commanders express concerns over potential loss of local power and influence, indicating that the integration process will rely heavily on careful restructuring and redeployment instead of imposing sweeping reforms that could exacerbate conflicts.
Operating from its base in Aden, the Yemeni government grapples with the intricate task of consolidating security authority without reigniting internal strife. Achieving a state monopoly on force requires a delicate mix of political agreement, regional collaboration, and international endorsement. Any abrupt actions could risk reigniting violent clashes, especially in light of ongoing sensitivities related to political factions and the lingering fallout of the Saudi–Emirati rift.
As Yemen exists within a broader regional context marked by shifting alliances and increasing competition for influence, foreign powers like the United States are closely monitoring the situation. Their primary concern lies in preventing a complete security collapse, as such a development could lead to further instability in the Gulf and open doors for new armed groups or escalate powers like the Houthis.
In the upcoming phase, the Yemeni government is expected to persist in its initiatives aimed at solidifying security control in southern areas, particularly in Hadhramaut, a strategic zone bordering Saudi Arabia. By integrating military units and managing to uphold political equilibrium, the government aspires to avert renewed conflict and transition towards stability. Ultimately, the effectiveness of these strategies will determine if Yemen advances toward lasting peace or enters another cycle of power realignment. A crucial question looms large: who will ultimately possess the capacity to maintain security on the ground amidst growing pressures pointing towards potential escalations from entities like the Southern Transitional Council?
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