Rising civil unrest in developed countries is leading to increased insurance claims and costs.

In recent years, a previously overlooked category of insurance risk known as SRCC (strikes, riots, and civil commotion) has gained prominence, becoming a significant source of financial losses for the insurance industry. According to estimates from Howden Re, insured losses associated with SRCC have escalated dramatically, rising from negligible levels in 2013 to over billion projected between 2020 and 2024. This surge reflects the increasing instances of civil unrest in Western democracies, leading to widespread property damage.

The landscape of SRCC-related losses is highly variable, with individual incidents capable of causing substantial fluctuations in claims. While 2025 experienced a relatively low volume of global SRCC claims, analysts predict a marked increase in losses within the United States this year. David Flandro, head of industry analysis and strategic advisory at Howden Re, indicates that the current era is characterized by heightened risk, with recent domestic unrest reflecting larger, systemic trends.

Globally, the rise in civil unrest correlates with increasing inequality and polarization in some of the wealthiest nations, as noted by research from the Pew Research Center. Citizens in many Western countries express skepticism about the prospects for generational wealth growth, which may be contributing to the rising political divisions that exacerbate SRCC risks.

When assessing the countries with the most significant SRCC risks, the United States emerges as the leading Western democracy and ranks fifth overall, surpassed only by countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India. SRCC risk modeling not only accounts for the likelihood of unrest but also the costs associated with damage incurred. France, for instance, ranks seventh in the assessment of SRCC risk.

Historically, insurers have provided coverage against SRCC incidents at no additional cost; however, the escalating risk landscape compels many insurers to reconsider such policies. There is a growing trend for property insurers to exclude or limit SRCC coverage from their offerings. In recent years, the market has begun to witness an upward trend in the premiums associated with SRCC coverage, particularly affecting retail assets.

Moreover, the majority of multinational corporations are now employing political risk modeling tools, a trend that continues to grow. Significant strides have been made in the insurance sector, with Lloyd’s of London establishing a dedicated code for SRCC risks in 2024 and Verisk introducing its inaugural SRCC catastrophe model focused on the U.S. market in 2025.

Data from reinsurer Swiss Re suggests that SRCC claims have increased from a mere couple dozen in the early 2000s to several hundred annually, indicating a definitive market trend. As the number of political protests escalates in the U.S., perceptions of the country as a “safe haven” are changing, with investors becoming more cautious in their approaches.

Calculating reliable loss risks related to SRCC remains complex, as not all protests lead to property damage. Nonetheless, the potential for significant financial losses is becoming increasingly evident. Analysts assert that it is now reasonable to expect that a single civil unrest event could result in over billion in losses, often surpassing risks associated with natural disasters.

The evolution of SRCC into a vital insurance concern underscores the need for the industry to adapt and develop comprehensive coverage solutions that reflect the increasingly volatile social and political landscape.