Survey shows political scholars believe the U.S. is moving towards authoritarianism.
A recent survey conducted by Bright Line Watch, an initiative supported by a consortium of political scientists from prestigious institutions including the University of Rochester, Dartmouth College, the University of Michigan, and the University of Chicago, has revealed a growing concern among experts regarding the state of democracy in the United States. The survey, which involved the assessments of 520 political experts, indicated a consensus that the nation is increasingly moving toward authoritarianism, potentially exacerbated by the current political climate.
The survey evaluated various aspects of democratic performance, ultimately assigning a score of 55 to U.S. democracy, with 100 representing a perfect democracy and zero denoting a dictatorship. This score marks a significant decline from the 67 recorded before President Donald Trump resumed office in January. Notably, this latest assessment reflects the lowest rating since Bright Line Watch introduced its democratic ratings system in 2017.
The dramatic dip in the rating is described as a “precipitous drop” by Bright Line Watch co-director and Dartmouth Professor John Carey, who emphasized that the nation seems to be “moving in the wrong direction.” The analysis examined 30 principles of democratic governance, focusing on government interactions with the media, political retribution, and the effectiveness of checks and balances over executive power. Bright Line Watch’s researchers plan to conduct further studies, anticipating an ongoing decline in the state of democracy.
Between 2017 and 2024, expert evaluations of U.S. democracy fluctuated between scores of 61 and 70. The previous low score of 61 was recorded in October 2020, shortly before Joe Biden won a contentious election against Trump. Following the 2024 election, in which Trump emerged victorious over Kamala Harris, democracy ratings fell slightly from 69 to 67. However, the average score plummeted to 55 between November 2024 and February 2025, leading researchers to predict a further decline to a rating of 47 by 2027.
In their assessments, experts expressed concerns that aspects of the Trump presidency, including pardons granted to January 6th convicts and his firings of Inspectors General and departmental investigators, represent significant threats to U.S. democracy. Some political scientists warned of a potential shift toward “competitive authoritarianism,” wherein elected leaders gradually undermine democratic institutions to consolidate power.
In contrast, some political analysts, such as retired Professor James Campbell from the University at Buffalo, argue that the Trump administration has effectively utilized legitimate presidential powers to achieve its objectives, suggesting that left-leaning researchers may find solace in labeling the president as authoritarian. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the implications of these findings will likely be the subject of intense debate and scrutiny in the near future.
