Thanksgiving travel to reach record highs despite potential disruptions from severe weather conditions.
This Thanksgiving holiday is poised to see a record-breaking number of travelers, with nearly 82 million people expected to journey at least 50 miles from their residences between November 25 and December 1, 2025. This estimate represents an increase of approximately 16 million compared to last year, according to forecasts from AAA, marking a historic peak in holiday travel.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has warned that these significant travel numbers could coincide with “widespread travel troubles” due to inclement weather across the contiguous United States. Rain and wintry conditions are expected, particularly affecting the Pacific Northwest and much of the eastern United States. Major travel hubs such as New York, Atlanta, and Chicago may experience air travel disruptions as the holiday approaches. Furthermore, the potential for an additional winter storm developing in the central U.S. on November 29 could exacerbate travel challenges.
Among the projected 81.8 million travelers, an overwhelming majority—approximately 73 million—are expected to take to the roads. This number reflects the preference for car travel during this holiday, which is often synonymous with family gatherings and cherished traditions. Meanwhile, more than 6 million passengers are anticipated to fly, and around 2.5 million will utilize buses, trains, or cruises.
Expectations for air travel vary between organizations. AAA predicts a modest 2% increase in air travelers compared to 2024, while the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) anticipates screening over 17.8 million individuals at airports from November 25 to December 2, with an anticipated peak of more than 3 million travelers on the Sunday following Thanksgiving. This period is projected to be one of the busiest travel days in TSA history.
These high travel volumes come on the heels of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) lifting flight restrictions imposed during a recent 43-day government shutdown, prompted by air traffic control staffing issues. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford has assured the traveling public of safe flights as air traffic controllers return to their duties.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy urged travelers to stay vigilant concerning weather forecasts, emphasizing the importance of being prepared for potential disruptions during what is expected to be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record. Travelers across the United States are advised to plan ahead and stay informed as they embark on their holiday journeys.
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