Trump’s Negotiation May Diminish Russian and Iranian Influence in the South Caucasus Region
Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, following in the footsteps of his late father and predecessor, Heydar Aliyev, along with key political allies, has roots in the strategically important Nakhchivan region. This remote, mountainous area, nestled between Armenia, Iran, and Turkiye, might not resonate with those outside the South Caucasus, but its geopolitical importance has surged to the forefront following a significant diplomatic summit between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders, hosted by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
During the summit, President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan established a preliminary peace agreement aimed at resolving the long-standing conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This conflict, which dates back to the early 1990s, saw ethnic Armenians declare independence from Azerbaijan, resulting in extensive casualties and large-scale displacement. A ceasefire orchestrated by Moscow in 1994 shaped the dynamics of the region, with Armenia benefiting from Russian energy supplies while Azerbaijan secured arms to bolster its military capabilities.
Significantly, the conflict’s ramifications extended to Nakhchivan, severing the Zangezur Corridor—a vital, albeit neglected, logistical connector to the Azerbaijani mainland. As travel options to Nakhchivan diminished, the region has faced isolation, with local governance reflecting a unique set of laws and lifestyles differing from Azerbaijan’s mainland.
Following Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the renewal of interest in the Zangezur Corridor has sparked aspirations for transportation and economic revitalization, linking Turkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia and enhancing trade routes for Central Asian energy resources to reach Europe.
Despite Armenia’s concerns that a strengthened Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance could pose security risks, Trump’s mediation has potentially redefined the geopolitical landscape of the South Caucasus. Analysts have noted that this development signifies a critical shift in regional security and logistics. The leaders praised Trump during their meeting and even named the corridor the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), leasing it to the U.S. for long-term development.
However, the implications extend beyond mere infrastructure; Washington may seek to bolster its influence in the resource-rich Caspian region, where American oil investments date back to the 1990s. The evolving dynamics have raised questions about the extent of Moscow’s influence in managing peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as both nations strive to diminish dependence on Russian intervention.
While optimism abounds following the summit, experts urge caution. Skepticism surrounds the durability of the agreement, highlighting that historical precedents exist where similar peace processes faltered despite hopeful beginnings. Currently, Baku has recognized Armenia’s territorial integrity but has not fully surrendered claims to certain lands, leading to ongoing complexities in achieving a balanced resolution.
The path forward is fraught with challenges as Armenia navigates internal divisions linked to the Nagorno-Karabakh situation and political adjustments required for constitutional amendments. The future of this peace agreement hinges on a delicate interplay of local and international political factors, necessitating a nuanced understanding of geopolitics and regional dynamics.
#PoliticsNews #MiddleEastNews
